Jelena Dokic is ready. But for what... to take Paris,
maybe?
Jelena may not have won her fifth career singles title in
Strasbourg this weekend, but she showed signs that she's
finally both physically and mentally sound as she prepares
to make her 2002 grand slam debut on Tuesday. After weeks
of dodgy injury situations, she played both singles and
doubles last week and managed to emerge without any new
ailments. She even displayed the stamina to string together
two match wins in a single day when she edged past Jelena
Kostanic in a 3-set QF, then wiped out Meghannn Shaughnessy
in the SF later in the day. A few weeks ago, that would
have surely been a recipe for disaster... but this time
Jelena seemed to get stronger as the day wore on.
It would have been nice to top off the week with a 3-set
Final win over Silvia Farina Elia, but at least the loss
will likely serve to put a bad taste in Jelena's mouth (she
certainly looked none too pleased in the post-match trophy
presentation pictures) and may urge her on even more at
Roland Garros. If she needed a slight wake up call, then
Saturday's loss might have provided all the incentive
necessary.
The desire to go to Strasbourg seemed to be sparked by the
belief that Jelena's shocking upset at the hands of
Hungarian unknown Petra Mandula in the RG 3r last year was
brought on by not playing the preceding week (though Jelena
DID open her RG campaign with a 6-0,6-0 victory and looked
positively unbeatable until she lost her concentration as
she was seemingly cruising to a victory after winning the
opening set over Mandula). If so, then consider the
fine-tuning, confidence-building, momentum-gathering
exercise a case of mission accomplished.
Not it's on to the greater task at hand...
1)Exorcising the ghost of Mandula from Jelena's Roland
Garros resume. The loss robbed her of a shot at a potential
SF berth in a suddenly wide open draw (as it turned out,
both Waffles took advantage of the situation that Jelena
squandered). Her 2002 draw isn't incredibly difficult, but
it's not without potential pitfalls as it sports some tricky
opponents that she won't be able to look past if she takes a
moment and remembers that she as much as admitted to doing
so with Mandula. Mandula can't -- and never should -- be
forgotten. Ever. Jelena will be all the better if she
realizes that.
2)Putting together a career-best RG result (she only needs
to reach the 4r to do that). Jelena has a career-best slam
seeding of #7, and this tournament will be considered a
great success if she can just live up to that seeding and
reach the QF. If that means then facing defending champ
Jennifer Capriati, so be it. There'd be no dishonor in
losing that match, so Jelena would be able to go for broke
knowing she has nothing to lose.
3)Potentially resurrecting the currently-on-the-shelf "Drive
for #5." If all the ingredients come together, namely a
career-best RG run combined with an earlier loss by Justine
Henin (2001 SF) that will join the probable move past
injured Martina Hingis (who'll lose all her SF points),
Jelena could shoot up the rankings to #7... or at least #8
by living up to her #7 seed.
4)And, finally, did I mention Mandula's ghost? It's still
flitting around the grounds at RG (it might have the chance
to haunt Monica Seles's attic in the 2r this year, after
scaring Anna Kournikova out of Strasbourg last week in an
act of perfecting its chain-rattling skills), and Jelena
needs to wipe that particular slate clean. With Mandula
herself in the other half of the draw, the only way to do it
will be to make it to the second week this time around.
Then Jelena could relax and hope for a few good breaks.
Who knows, something great just may be about to happen.
*JELENA CAREER WTA SINGLES FINALS*
2001 ROME - DEF. AMELIE MAURESMO
2001 Bahia - lost to Monica Seles
2001 TOKYO - DEF. A.SANCHEZ VICARIO
2001 MOSCOW - DEF. ELENA DEMENTIEVA
2001 Zurich - lost to Lindsay Davenport
2001 Linz - lost to Lindsay Davenport
2002 Paris - walkover to Venus Williams
2002 SARASOTA - DEF. TATIANA PANOVA
2002 Strasbourg - lost to S.Farina Elia
*JELENA CLAY EVENTS IN 2002*
Sarasota - WON (def. Panova)
Amelia Island - SF (retired vs. Henin)
Charleston - 2r (Smashnova)
Hamburg - SF (retired vs. Clijsters)
Berlin - 3r (Hantuchova)
Rome - 3r (Myskina)
Strasbourg - RU (Farina Elia)
Roland Garros - ??
WON/LOST: 16-6
*ROLAND GARROS, May 27-June 9*
*Paris, France - Grand Slam - Red Clay*
*Dokic (#7) - 1r vs. E.Gagliardi*
POINTS TABLE
W=650
RU=456
SF=292
QF=162
4r=90
3r=56
2r=32
1r=2
TOP HALF, QUARTER #1
...Obviously, Jennifer Capriati is the big gun here. She's
the defending champ, the #1 ranked player in the world and
the winner of 2002's first slam in Oz. As she tries to
successfully defend a second slam title, she has some
potentially difficult matchups with Alexandra Stevenson (3r)
and either Patty Schnyder or Meghannn Shaughnessy (4r), but
it's hard to see her not making it this far. She'll likely
meet up with Jelena Dokic, though the teenager has a draw
that might be tougher than it first appears. Though Dokic
has beaten her three straight times on clay, Conchita
Martinez (2r) is never easy. In the 3r/4r, potential
opponents include 2002 title winners Fabiola Zuluaga,
Katarina Srebotnik or Martina Muller, as well as Anastasia
Myskina (who defeated Dokic earlier this month). Dokic's
best RG has been last year's 3r showing, but she showed good
form and (finally) health in Strasbourg last week and should
be expected to hold her seed. To defeat Capriati, though,
isn't a good bet. She'd have to put together a
career-topping day to take out Capriati, a player she's
never beaten. It should be noted, though, that Dokic is 2-0
vs. Top 10ers this season when she's been healthy enough to
finish the match (she's 0-3 when she was forced to retire,
or not play the match at all). In other words, Dokic could
knock off JC... but don't hold your breath waiting for it to
happen just yet.
YOUNG PLAYER TO WATCH: Anastasia Myskina
PREDICTION: Capriati def. Dokic
TOP HALF, QUARTER #2
...Serena Williams and Justine Henin have already met in
finals of their past two events in Berlin & Rome (splitting
the matches), and they seem on another collision course at
RG. Serena might get a test from Martina Sucha in the 1r,
or Anna Smashnova in the Round of 16, but expect her to push
through. Henin's road is tougher, with possible matchups
with Mary Pierce (3r) and Silvia Farina Elia (4r) along the
way. But the confidence of her back-to-back wins over
Capriati and Serena in Berlin should help Henin overcome the
memory of her RG SF collapse against Clijsters last year.
I'll go on a hunch and pick Henin over Williams here, if
only because Serena's body might not be able to take another
pounding after back-to-back finals appearances in her last
two events.
YOUNG PLAYER TO WATCH: Anna Smashnova
PREDICTION: Henin def. S.Williams
BOTTOM HALF, QUARTER #3
...2001 RU Kim Clijsters is the top seeded player in the
quarter, and as long as health doesn't become an issue, she
seems a lock to make it here. The question is who she'll
face, Sandrine Testud or Amelie Mauresmo. Mauresmo ususally
wilts under the pressure of the French crowds, and it
wouldn't be a shock to see her go out to either Magui Serna
(2r) or Stephanie Foretz (3r) before any matchup with
Testud.
YOUNG PLAYER TO WATCH: Stephanie Foretz
PREDICTION: Clijsters def Testud
BOTTOM HALF, QUARTER #4
...Venus missed out on the top seed when she injured herself
by apparently picking up a bad in practice, but RG is the
one slam where she's not a lock for the second week anyway.
She lost to Barbara Schett in the 1r in 2001, and it
wouldn't be stunning if the same thing happened against
Bianka Lamade this year (or Rita Grande in the 2r, or Anne
Kremer/Chanda Rubin in the 4r). Should Venus reach the QF,
she'll likely find Monica Seles waiting. For the first time
in a while, Seles seems to have a real shot at a grand slam
title. It'll be a tough road, though, as Angeles Montolio
(1r), Iva Majoli (3r) or Daniela Hantuchova (4r) could pull
an upset. I really don't expect both of these players to
make it this far, but I'll go with the odds.
YOUNG PLAYER TO WATCH: Daniela Hantuchova
PREDICTION: Seles def. V.Williams
WEEK 21
STRASBOURG (TIER III - RED CLAY)
S: Silvia Farina Elia d. Jelena Dokic
D: Hopkins/Kostanic d. Dhenin/Matevzic
MADRID (TIER III - RED CLAY)
S: Monica Seles d. Chanda Rubin
D: Navratilova/Zvereva d. Sanchez Vicario/De Los Rios
AGE AWARDS (Oop, I mean PLAYER AWARDS)
PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Monica Seles
...28-year old Seles brushed aside rumors of her potential
retirement (though she didn't rule out it happening in the
next year) to take her 2nd title of 2002 in Madrid.
RISER: Jelena Dokic
...Though she didn't win Strasbourg, she showed good form
(but she has to stop dropping those opening sets!) and, more
importantly, stayed healthy so she'll enter RG without the
nagging injury question.
SURPRISE: Chanda Rubin
...26-year old Rubin (#65) overcame her injury-riddled
recent past to put together her best tournament since 2000.
VETERAN: Martina Navratilova and Siliva Farina Elia
...Navratilova (at 45 years, 7 months and 7 days) became the
oldest woman to ever win a WTA singles or doubles title when
she teamed with Natasha Zvereva to take the Madrid doubles.
It was her 166th career doubles crown, but her first since
1994. Farina Elia defeated Dokic in the Strasbourg final to
become (at 30 years, 1 month) the oldest WTA singles
champion in 2002.
NEW FACE: Clarissa Fernandez
...She made it through Madrid qualifying, then knocked off
Marissa Irvin and Ai Sugiyama in the main draw.
DOWNER: Arantxa Sanchez Vicario
...the 30-year old ASV, defending Madrid champ, lost in the
2r and saw her singles ranking fall from #18 all the way to
#29.
*MATCHES*
1t.Madrid Final - Seles d. Rubin
1t.Madrid Doubles Final - Navratilova/Zvereva d. ASV/De Los
Rios
...it was old home week in Madrid.
2.Madrid 2r/QF - Rubin d. ASV/Serna
...an out-of-the-blue spark from the once-promising
American.
3.Strasbourg Final - SFE d. Dokic
...Quietly, 30-year Farina Elia is #11 in the world.
4.Strasbourg 1r - Mandula d. Kournikova
...Mandula is getting ready for RG. Anna K. is 16-17 for
2002.
5.Strasbourg SF - Dokic d. Shaughnessy
...6-1,6-2 after a tough, 3-setter over
Kostanic earlier in the day. Maybe the injury worries
really are history.
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by Todd Spiker