Article by Todd Spiker

*JELENA CORNER*

THE MARCH ON MOSCOW

by Todd Spiker


*LEIPZIG BREAKDOWN*
1...1r bye
0...2r: Shaughnessy (#38) - 2-6,4-6
1...TOTAL (non-qualifying best-17 total)

#5...SINGLES RANK (3074)
#7...2002 PTS. RACE (2452)
#20..DOUBLES RANK (1286)


--LET THE MARCH BEGIN-

   Moscow awaits, and Jelena must be ready... or suffer the consequences.
   She enters this week still ranked #5, but she's barely holding off a handful of pursuers as she faces the defense of some 800 points over the next four weeks.  Things could change very quickly, and not for the better.
   The preparatory stop in Leipzig last week amounted to little to feel good about, but at least she got two matches (one singles, one doubles) on the Supreme court surface before heading to Russia to defend her 2001 title.  The surface switch after months of hardcourt events made the loss to Meghannn Shaughnessy hardly a surprise.  In fact, it's the second straight year Jelena saw the September conversion result in an opening match loss in the Sparkassen Cup.  Jelena needed an easy opponent to help get her feet under her, and Shaughnessy (with a 1r win in hand) decided not to play the 2r role for the first time in months.  But that's water under the bridge now.
   At this time last year, Jelena rebounded on Supreme by sweating out a win over Lina Krasnoroutskaya in the Moscow 1r... then didn't lose another set the entire tournament (and went on to two straight hardcourt finals immediately afterward in Zurich and Linz).  That run provides the bind she now finds herself in.

 

   The entire 2002 season has been working up to this month.  Jelena's not going to match a Tier I title (Moscow - 339 points), Tier I RU (Zurich - 262) and Tier II RU (Linz- 174) over the next few weeks, either... even with her commitment to play in Filderstadt currenty wedged into her schedule in Week 41 to compensate for the lost ground.  She's going to fall, it's just a question of how far and how fast.


--RANKING CHAOS--

 

   So, Jelena enters Moscow with 3074 points.  As the 339 points from last year fall off, she's left with 2735.  A 65-point week from Stanford moves up to replace the Moscow total to round out her 17-best results, meaning the worst total she can exit Russia with will be 2800.

 

   Of course, that 2800 will be higher if Jelena's week in Moscow produces more than 65 points so that the Kremlin Cup '02 total qualifies as one of her 17-best over the past 12 months.  If that's the case, the new Moscow total will be added to the 2735 to get her new points for October 7.
   In effect, even a SF result this week would put her total at around 2880 and likely drop her below both Henin and Mauresmo in the rankings since the Waffle is idle and Mauresmo will add points to her total with every win (she lost in the 1r in Moscow last year).
A RU, though, would give Jelena around 2950 and give her a fighting chance to at least stay ahead of Henin, and maybe move past Seles (who's losing 192 points of her own to drop to 2960).  Davenport, too, has to be thrown into the mix since a SF run or better will put her between 2800-2900 as she prepares to defend three titles over the next three weeks.
   Basically, the rankings could be an incredible logjam on Monday.  Jelena could be anywhere from #5-#8, and #4-#8 might be separated by less than 50 total points.  Only Mauresmo seems in good shape to pull away from the pack as she likely rises to #4.
   Here's the Round-by-Round & Quality Points for Moscow:

 

   Thus, a SF is almost essential to prevent a real points bleeding this week.  A RU would be great.  A title?  Priceless.

--THIS WEEK--

KREMLIN CUP
Moscow, Russia
Sept.30-Oct.6
Supreme court; Tier I
#3 seed; 2r: Coetzer/qualifier
2001: CHAMPION (def. Dementieva)

PREDICTION:
   Again, if Jelena can get through her opening match on this surface (and that's no given if it's against Coetzer), she'll have a shot at picking up a head of steam.  Let's not dwell on a disaster, though, and assume she'll make to at least the QF.
   Kournikova could await her there.  No easy task considering their L.A. duel, but that win should give her the confidence to have a great chance to get through.  It'll gets tougher after that since Davenport could be waiting in the SF.  It's hard to see Jelena getting past that obstacle, so it's probably best to hope that Elena Bovina can push LD to three sets for the third time this year and maybe finally upset her... and give Jelena the chance to avenge her US Open 2r loss to the 19-year old Russian.  If she gets that chance, maybe that RU isn't out of the question (or even better if Mauresmo could upset Venus in the SF).
   That's a big "if" to throw into the equation, though, when even Jelena's own performance is difficult to guess.  So, SF will have to do as far as a prediction this time around.  Not a dream result, but a necessary one.

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**2002 MATCH STATS**
50-22...overall
48-15...vs. lesser-ranked
4-4.....vs. Top 10 (completed matches)
0-4.....vs. Top 10 (retired/walkover)

**JELENA BY SURFACE**
20-7...clay
19-9...hard
8-2....grass
3-4....indoor/supreme

**2002 TIER I's**
Tokyo TPP...2r (Anne Kremer)
Indian Wells...3r (Anne Kremer)
Miami...3r (Anne Kremer)
Charleston...2r (Anna Smashnova)
Berlin...3r (Daniela Hantuchova)
Rome...3r (Anastasia Myskina)
Montreal...SF (Jennifer Capriati)-ret.
Moscow...??
Zurich...??
(CAREER: 37-20; 2002: 7-7)

**2002 RESULTS-BY-ROUND**
2...Champion
3...Runner-Up
6...Semifinalist
2...Quarterfinalist
1...4th Round
4...3rd Round
6...2nd Round

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