Article by Todd Spiker

**JELENA CORNER**

BALANCING ACT, OR CATCH-22?

by Todd Spiker


**TOKYO POINTS BREAKDOWN**
88...SF
1...2r: Lina Krasnorourskaya (#307) - 6-2,7-6
15...QF: Tamarine Tanasugarn (#28) - 6-3,6-1
0...SF: Kim Clijsters (#8) - 7-5,2-6,3-6
104 = TOTAL
-298 = Tokyo 2001
-194 = TOTAL +/- POINTS FOR WEEK

#5 = SINGLES RANK (3074)
#7 = 2002 POINTS RACE (2451)
#18 = DOUBLES RANK (1247)


--CLOSER AND CLOSER--

   The time draws nearer with every passing day.  Soon, we'll know whether Jelena's 4th quarter gambit will prove to be a success or failure.
   Her singles ranking dropped to #5 on Monday following her inability to defend her 2001 Tokyo title, but last week still ranks as a positive step forward toward the even greater goal of hitting her playing peak in the season's two remaining Tier I's and the WTA Championships in Los Angeles.
   In Brazil, Jelena struggled each time out and Anastasia Myskina made quick work of her in the SF.  In Tokyo, she got frustrated and threw her racket but came back from an early break down in the 2nd set to finish off Lina Krasnoroutskaya in straights; then masterfully finished off Tamarine Tanasugarn in the QF.  In the SF, she took the 1st set from Kim Clijsters before ultimately losing the match in a close 3-6 3rd set.  It was a rare come-from-ahead defeat for Jelena.  When up a set, she's now 10-1 in career SF, 125-13 overall and 38-3 in 2002.
   The SF result was the same for Brazil and Japan, but the tone that was set last week was decidedly different.  In Tokyo, another step was taken.  Jelena's advanced to the SF or better in 5 of her last 6 events.  Thus far, her 4th quarter isn't matching her 2001 results, but her consistency seems to have regained its footing after her late-Summer crash.


 

   That great season-closing flourish of a year ago has put Jelena's back against the wall, and it'll take more than SF's to prevent last year's positive from transforming into 2002's "negative."  You get an idea of how high that Great Wall of Points is when you realize that the Bahia and Tokyo SF were well and good... but she's still 236 points behind 2001's pace.  That SF loss to Myskina is looking more and more important every day when you realize that a continued string of good SF results over the next month will still result in Jelena losing an additional 250-350 points.  Such is life when you're faced with defending a Tier I title and two RU (one in an additional Tier I) once Leipzig is over.
   Since she hasn't yet advanced to a final this 4th quarter, for Jelena to stage successful fight to stay in the Top 5 it will likely mean she has to hoist a trophy before the end of the season.  If she can do that, she'll probably finish with between 2900-3000 points and have a shot at #5-6.  If not, something around 2700 would mean a battle to maintain her #8 ranking from 2001 (when she finished with 2780).
   This stacked-against-her situation probably explains the trip to Leipzig this week when she might be better off taking a rest.  She lost in the 2r there in 2001, so this might be her last chance at entering a "free points zone" this season (unless she squeezes in yet another tournament the week after Moscow... but let's leave that possibility alone for the moment).  The reasoning behind the decision is sound as far as the numbers go, but one wonders if it'll do her any good a month from now, even as it's been apparent that Jelena gets better results the more often she plays.  These week-in, week-out strings of events usually allow her game to gain momentum... but they also tire her out and prevent her from finishing off the string with a grand finale.  Usually, she ends with a whimper.
   Jelena has to play often to get better, but playing too much can cause more trouble than triumph.  It's a delicate balancing act that just might be a Catch-22.  So much so that her 1r doubles loss in Tokyo was reason to rejoice (and the same might be the case in Germany).
   This week's Leipzig stop on this end-of-year jaunt, like Bahia before it, is but a prelude.  But it's the final one.  Jelena's true moments of truth will come in Moscow, Zurich, Linz and L.A..  Yes, this is still only the beginning.


 

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**JELENA on Supreme/Indoor courts IN 2002**
Tokyo TPP...2r (Anne Kremer)
Paris...RU (Venus Williams-walkover)
Antwerp...2r (Patty Schnyder-retired)
Leipzig...??
Moscow...??
TOTAL RECORD: 3-3


 

**RANKING NOTES**
...Jelena dropped to #5 when she lost 194 points in the 12-month turnaround as she failed to defend her Tokyo title (accumulating 104 in comparison to last year's 298-point haul).

...If Jelena is to regain her #4 spot from Seles she will need to advance to the Final in Leipzig.  Seles will be defending no points and is idle.  Meanwhile, Jelena's 1 point from Leipzig '01 isn't includede amongst her 17-best tournament total.  A run to at least the SF would drop the 104 points from last week from the 17-best list (see below), meaning she'd need to accumulate 181 points to make up Seles' 78-point lead and surpass her.

...Clijsters is defending 303 points from her 2002 Leipzig title this week, while Hantuchova's biggest late-2001 defense means she has to defend 130 from last year's QF (and win over Jelena).

...Next week, Jelena's 339 points from her Moscow title is ready to fall away.  Seles is defending 192, but both Henin and Mauresmo lost their first matches at last year's Kremlin Cup.  In other words, Jelena could very well fall from to #7 once Moscow is over unless she advances to at least the Final.


**HOW TO COMPUTE JELENA'S POINTS TOTAL**
   Jelena's ranking points are determined by accumulating the totals from her 17-best tournaments over the past 12 months.  The results from each event falls off after 52 weeks, but no points are lost unless the total from that tournament was counted as one of her 17-best results.
   For example, her 2001 Leipzig total (1) will not come off her current 3074 total on Monday because it wasn't being counted anyway.  If Jelena manages to score over 104 this week, then the 17th best total (from last week's Tokyo) will fall off the list and be replaced by the Leipzig number.
   The resulting new 17-best totals will be added together for next Monday's new ranking points.  So, Jelena will need to accumulate 183 (only possible with a run to the Final, and maybe not even then if her quality points don't add up to be enough...so a win over Clijsters would be a nice help) if she's to  erase Seles' 78-point lead for #4.
   Hehe, I hope that makes sense.  Here's the 17-best totals:

 

And the current 12-month non-qualifying totals:

 

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THIS WEEK:

**Sparkassen Cup**
**Neus Messegelande; Leipzig, Germany**
**Supreme court; Tier II**
**#2 seed; 2r: Likhovtseva/Shaughnessy**
**2001: 2r loss to Hantuchova**

POINTS TABLE
W=195
RU=137
SF=88
QF=49
2r=25
1r-1

--STEP-BY-STEP--

LEIPZIG PREDICTION

   Last week's Tokyo SF was the same result as in Bahia, but it was really "better."  Jelena, step-by-step, looks to be gaining momentum heading into the season's final month.
   In predicting Leipzig, you have to take into account that Jelena's moving from hardcourts to Supreme indoor surface.  Last year, the transition began with a 2r loss (her only poor post-US Open performance).  If she can get past her 2r match year, it'll be time to breath a sign of relief since either Likhovtseva or Shaughnessy will already have a Supreme match under their belt.
   If she can, a Final run depends on Jelena getting revenge for her two 4th quarter losses (Myskina in Bahia, Clijsters in Tokyo).  Somehow, I get the feeling that Jelena won't let a player not ranked ahead of her get the better of her again so soon... not with so much at stake.
   Of course, that would mean the probable Final matchup with Serena that she missed out on in Japan.  The result here wouldn't likely be different from what it would have been last week.  But a loss to the world #1 would be another step toward the Moscow-to-L.A. month-long "tightrope tango."
   Hmmm, seems a RU is a popular prediction here on JD.com this week.  Let's hope we're all onto something.

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NOTE:  Hey, if you want to catch the WTA Report for this Week 38 you can read it exclusively on www.Tennisrulz.com.  Convenient for you, convenient for me... and I bet Pierre wouldn't mind you paying a visit to the ol' homebase, either. :)
  It's just a hop, skip and a click away.