**JELENA CORNER

ONE STEP ON A LONG ROAD

by Todd Spiker


*BAHIA POINTS BREAKDOWN (#1 seed)**
99...SF
4...2r: Myriam Casanova (#79) - 7-6,6-4
15...QF: Amanda Coetzer (#27) - 6-2,5-7,6-4
0...SF: Anastasia Myskina (#15) - 2-6,4-6
118 = BAHIA TOTAL
-160...2001 points off
-42 = TOTAL FOR WEEK

#4 = SINGLES RANK (3268)
#7 = SANEX POINTS RACE (2347)
#18 = DOUBLES RANK (1347)


   From her vantage point, the stretch of road between Jelena Dokic and the end of her 2002 season must look as if it goes on forever into the horizon.  It's been an extremely long season in every way imaginable.  A real marathon trek.
   In truth, Jelena needs an extended rest.  In fact, a good break from the game right now would do her wonders.  But she can't do it.  There's too much at stake.  So, as here we stand, it's probably best to view the course of the rest of the year in a "walk, don't run" frame of mind.  After the disappointment of her late Summer, she's going to have to learn to walk again before she can ever hope to break into something resembling a full sprint.
   She valiantly fought through the mess in advancing to the Bahia SF to begin her oh-so-important 4th quarter.  Remember, it was in Brazil last year that she began the 5 finals in 7 events run that took her into the Top 10 for the first time last October.  In 2002, she came back from a 1st set point down to Myriam Casanova in the 2r (and reversed a 1-4 deficit in set two); then she rode a QF rollercoaster against veteran Amanda Coetzer in her next match, blowing a 5-2 2nd set advantage before finally taking the match in 3 sets.  Her luck ran out in the SF where, after losing a 4-1 2-break lead in the 2nd, she went out in straight sets to eventual champion Anastasia Myskina (losing 16 of the final 20 points).
   It was a mixed bag of results in Jelena's first tournament of the Fall, but a SF is a good opening result.  And it was encouraging to see she's still capable of putting up (and winning) a fight like the one she encountered against Coetzer.  After her desire was called into question during the Summer's closing weeks, that was an open question going into Brazil.  As it is, she's 17-4 in three-set matches in 2002 (and 20-4 since last September).
   With Eleni Daniilidou's loss in the Bahia final, Jelena is still the only teenager to have two singles titles to her name this season and she's now advanced to at least the SF in four of her last five tournaments.  Brazil was only a legit disappointment when viewed in direct comparison to last year's run.  She set such high standands a year ago that it's obvious that she won't match them this 4th quarter.  But that doesn't mean that Tokyo (this week), Moscow (in 2) and the L.A. Championships (in 6) aren't the difference-makers in determining Jelena's success or failure in the season's closing stanza.
   She may not be pressured to win a title at those three events, but she surely cannot bomb out in any of them and expect to be able to quickly correct the ranking damage in would cause.  At least two SF will be needed to stem the tide of potential lost points.
   Once L.A. is over, though, the much needed rest will finally come.  She'll be able to recharge and better prepare for 2003 (here's a hint: she should take a red pen to her overstuffed schedule, and prepare better for her early season by at least picking up a racket a few times during her time off -- something she remarkably admitted to not doing last Winter).
   But, right now, it's time for Step Two of the Fall season.  With luck, it'll be a step forward and not anything resembling the opposite.  Even with a title to defend in Tokyo, just a result on par with last week's (a SF) would be a heartening step along the long road.  With that would remain the hope that Jelena will eventually be able to "run" once again before she reaches the 2002 finish line.

 

--TIP-TOEING IN TOKYO--

**TOYOTA PRINCESS CUP; Sept.17-22**
**Ariake Colosseum; Tokyo, Japan**
**Hardcourt; Tier II**
**#2 seed; 2001: Champion (def.ASV)**
POINTS TABLE
W=195
RU=137
SF=88
QF=49
2r=25
1r=1

PREDICTION:
   I'm tempted to pick a RU result for Jelena as she heads to Tokyo to defend last year's title, but nothing about her recent level of play says that's the likely outcome.
   Could it come about?  Surely.  The major obstaces that might prevent it from becoming reality are either woefully lacking in matchplay (Lina Krasnoroutskaya), not coming off a particularly good Summer (Tamarine Tanasugarn) or experiencing the same rollercoaster ride of a season as Jelena (Kim Clijsters, who's actually been more down than up in 2002, hence her fall from #3 to #7).
   But, of course, the biggest obstacle is probably Jelena herself, considering her verging (if not blatantly) worn out physical and mental condition as this very long season winds down.  Based on how she's gone out of recent events, she's likely to be unceremoniously dumped in straight sets when it's time for her to go.  It could be against Serena Williams in the final, but probably won't.
   With so many points to defend this Fall, these opening weeks of the Quarter are almost like a grand slam for Jelena... just get through them and hope to pick up momentum as she goes along.  The SF in Bahia was a nice start, but to suddenly expect a Finals-worthy run in Japan might be pie in the sky thinking.  Still, at least another SF is an obtainable (and necessary) goal.
   The early rounds this week might provide the insight into how much Jelena has to give in Tokyo (and whether she can live up to her #2 seed).  If she starts out with coasting wins, she could playing herself into her first matchup with Williams this year.  But if she has to struggle just to make it past her early opponents or is pushed to 3 sets in a match that should've ended in two (ala vs. Coetzer in Brazil), then a warning flag goes up.  Then, she'll either have a sorely disappointing early exit or a loss in the SF (likely to Clijsters).
   With so much at stake, I don't think Jelena will falter early.  I can't pick her advancing past the SF, though.  But back-to-back SF would provide a nice push toward that Tier I title she'll have to defend in Moscow.  This is but a stepping stone toward that week.  She need not stomp around ala Godzilla on this trip to Japan... tip-toeing to the weekend would be just fine.


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*BAHIA*
S: Anastasia Myskina d. Eleni Daniilidou
D: Ruano-Pascual/Suarez d. Loit/De Los Rios

*SHANGHAI*
S: Anna Smashnova d. Anna Kournikova
D: Kournikova/Lee d. Fujiwara/Sugiyama

*WAIKOLOA*
S: Cara Black d. Lisa Raymond
D: Tu/Vento-Kabchi d. DeVilliers/Selyutina

 

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Anastasia Myskina
...a 21-year old Muscovite finally wins a tournament crown in 2002.  But it's not her first (she also won at Palermo in 1999), and it won't be her last.  At #12 in the world, Myskina is the true Russian leading lady of tennis.

RISER: Anna Kournikova
...even while Myskina deserves the headlines this week, Kournikova certainly deserves her share of the conversation.  After crashing out in late Summer following a string of encouraging results, she opened her Fall campaign with a bang.  Well, at least some sort of popping noise.  She swallowed her pride by entering a Tier IV, then went all the way to her first singles Final since Moscow 2000.  It should have silenced a few critics but, of course, "Anna Loses Again" was how the result was reported around the world.  It should have been, "Anna's Early-Summer Run Was No Fluke."  At #36 and rising, Kournikova might just turn 2002 into something of a "resurgence year," after all.

SURPRISE: Samantha Reeves
...she defeated Schett en route to a QF berth in Waikoloa.  In a week of few "real" surprises, that'll have to qualify.

VETERANS: Virginia Ruano-Pascual & Paola Suarez
...after winning the US Open title, this doubles team surpassed Raymond/Stubbs to become the #1-ranked team in the world.  They followed that up with another title in Brazil, the duo's sixth of 2002.

NEW FACE: Angelique Widjaja
...she won a 2001 title in Bali at 15, took the girl doubles crown at Oz in January, claimed the Roland Garros girls title in June, and defeated Kournikova in the US Open 1r two weeks ago.  This past week, she advanced to the Shanghai SF.  And she's still only 16.

DOWNER: Meghannn Shaughnessy
...hard to believe she was on the cusp of the Top 10 at this time last year.

 

1.Bahia Final - Myskina d. Daniilidou
...all Myskina's work this summer (back-to-back grasscourt finals, then wins over both Henin and Hingis in New Haven) was followed by grand slam disappointment.  Her perseverence finally paid off with a Tier II title.

2.Shanghai Final - Smashnova d. Kournikova
...speaking of deserving headlines, how many know that Smashnova has more titles (4) in 2002 than everyone not named Williams?  After losing to Kournikova twice this Summer, Smashnova made the third time a charm.

3.Bahia SF - Myskina d. Dokic
...Dokic led 4-1 in the 2nd set, was up 2 breaks and was serving for 5-1.  A 3rd set seemed assured.  Then, much like she did against Hingis in New Haven, Myskina became infallible.  She broke Dokic, then never lost another point on her serve.  After a 10-straight point string, and while winning 16 of the final 20 points of the match, Myskina was well on her way to the biggest weekend of her career.

4.Shanghai SF - Kournikova d. Sugiyama
...after trailing 0-4 in the 2nd, Kournikova fought her way back to complete a straight sets victory.

5.Bahia SF - Daniilidou d. Seles
...in a weekend filled with Annas and Russians, Daniilidou deserves her own notice.

HM-Raymond d. C.Martinez
...Martinez nearly blew a 5-1 lead in the 2nd before taking a tie-break.  Then, she lost a 3-1 lead in the 3rd.  It's clear that Martinez hasn't lost her game, but the stamina left her somewhere around the millennium celebration.

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*WEEK 38*
PREDICTIONS

Tokyo (Princess Cup) = TIER II/Hardcourt
F: Serena Williams def. Kim Clijsters
...no reason to see a sea change in the Serena tidal wave just yet.  It's just a matter of whether it'll be Clijsters or Dokic who's scalp is next to be claimed in the final.

Quebec City = TIER III/Hardcourt
F: Elena Bovina def. Meghannn Shaughnessy
...if her US Open QF run was any indication, Bovina is the next Russian who'll make some big-time noise.  Quebec City might not qualify as that, but it's a start.  Shaughnessy is defending champ.

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**2002 SINGLES TITLES**
7...Venus Williams
6...Serena Williams
4...Anna Smashnova

**BEST WINNING PCT. IN FINALS**
1.000...Anna Smashnova (4-0)
.857...Serena Williams (6-1)

**2002 SINGLES SF**
13...Venus Williams (11-2)
10...JELENA DOKIC (5-5)
9...Monica Seles (3-6)

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