--A HANDFUL OF PAST-THEIR-PRIMES--
Lisa Raymond, Conchita Martinez, Amy Frazier & Amanda
Coetzer... They've all had their moments in the past, and
Martinez even won Wimbledon in 1994, but really only
Raymond's attacking style might be able to muster any
surprises for the likes of Venus Williams in this quarter
(and even then only on a bad day from Williams, and only for
a short time).
--GOOD PLAYERS WITH BAD GRASS
HISTORIES--
Silvia Farina Elia, Maggie Maleeva, Patty Schnyder, Katarina
Srebotnik... 30-year old SFE, seeded 10th, became the oldest
singles champion of 2002 by defeating Dokic in Strasbourg,
but she's never made it past the 3r at Wimbledon and has
lost in her first match six of her previous ten
appearances. Both Maleeva (4r) and Schnyder (3r) had their
best Wimbledon results in 2001, while Srebotnik has never
won a match.
--AND ONLY ONE INTRIGUING UPSET-MAKER--
Elena Likhovtseva heads the smallest group of potential
upset-makers in any of the four quarters. She should get a
shot at Clijsters in the 2r, and has a 4r Wimbledon result
under her belt. Problem is, it came all the way back in
1996. Emmauelle Gagliardi, a 3r in her debut last year, as
well as maybe Jennifer Hopkins, at least bear some passing
interest, as well. But that's all.
--OVERVIEW--
In a quarter understocked with interesting opponents,
two-time defending champ Venus Williams looks like the
surest-bet on the board to advance to the SF. Only a 4r
matchup with Raymond might make her blink for a moment, if
only because she rarely sees a game quite like her's, before
a clash with Kim Clijsters in the QF. Normally, this
matchup would present a chance for an upset, but the
Waffle's recently shaky form (out early at RG, as well as in
the Netherlands) following her January arm injury makes a
challenge less of a sure thing than one might expect. If
Clijsters can gradually work her game into shape, she'll
give Venus a decent match. But Venus looks like she's as
close to owning the grass courts as Navratilova and Graf
were in their primes.
PREDICTION: Venus in straights over Clijsters in the QF, and
onto the SF without losing a single set.
*****TOP HALF, QUARTER #2*****
IN THIS QUARTER, WE'VE GOT...
--FAMILIAR NAMES LUCKY TO BE IN THIS QUARTER--
Elena Dementieva, Barbara Schett, Ai Sugiyama, Tamarine
Tanasugarn & Iva Majoli... Everyone knows these names, but
they might not be heard from the next two weeks if they were
unlucky enough to be stashed in any of the other three
quarters. In this one, though, with the top seed being a
player (Seles) whose worst surface is grass, and the
second-highest seed being a player (Henin) fighting a slump,
nagging injuries and a virus as she attempts to defend her
best-ever slam result (a RU here in 2001), they might just
sneak through to the second week. Dementieva hasn't been
able to put together a slam follow-up to her US Open SF in
2000 (never advancing to another slam QF), but she did get
to the Netherlands grass final last week. It might be a
good sign for her, but 's-Hertogenbosch isn't Wimbledon
(and, once again, she blew a lead to a lesser-ranked player
and failed to win her first career singles title). Schett
has always held more promise than production, while
Tanasugarn seems stuck on a 4r result (four straight years,
in fact). Majoli did make a QF here in 1997, but hasn't
been heard from until her re-breakthrough during the recent
clay season this spring.
--AND A HANDFUL OF YOUNG PLAYERS LOOKING TO MAKE A MARK--
Angelique Widjaja, Vera Zvonareva & Tina Pisnik... Zvonareva
showed the guts of a Dokic/Clijsters at RG, taking a set
from Serena Williams i the 4r; while Pisnik upset Clijsters
last week in the Netherlands. But it's 16-year old Widjaja,
Wimbledon Girls champ last year and RG Girls titleist
earlier this month, who's the one to watch. She has a
potentially challenging draw, but she's already won a WTA
title (at 15, in Bali last September) and has had success at
the All England Club to give her some confidence.
--OVERVIEW--
As far as the top seeds go, this quarter is certainly the
one with the most questions. Both Seles and Henin will have
ample opportunities to be upset by a handful of players, but
the chance that both won't make it to the QF is remote. I'm
going to go out on a limb and pick one of them to fail to do
so, though. I'm tempted to go with Schett to knock off
Henin in the 3r, but I won't. Seles and the grass have
never gone together all that well, as she was only able to
advance to one Final even when she was dominant and ranked
#1. Hmmm... so, who's worth rolling the dice on? Oh, what
the hell. If I'm going to take a chance, I might as well
pick the most precarious limb available and go with an
earth-shattering upset by taking 16-year old Widjaja to pull
the shocker of the tournament in the 4r. Go ahead and laugh
(I probably will be, too, by this time next week), but I've
got a craving for this little bit of lunacy and just can't
back away. Of course, that leaves a Henin-Widjaja QF to
contend with.
PREDICTION: Come on, I'm not THAT crazy.
Henin to the SF, but she'll have at least one nailbiter
along the way (and may have to overcome a match point
against her).
*****BOTTOM HALF, QUARTER #1*****
IN THIS QUARTER, WE'VE GOT...
--ONE BIG OPENING FOR A NON-FRENCHWOMAN--
Anastasia Myskina, Natasha Zvereva, Alicia Molik, Nicole
Pratt & Magui Serna... The main draw has set up a 4r meeting
between Frenchwomen Sandrine Testud and Amelie Mauresmo.
But Testud's grasscourt preparation has been dreadful, and
Mauresmo, despite a physical power game that seems a good
fit with the grass, has typically been a non-factor here on
the biggest stage (her best result a 3r in '01). That would
appear to leave one QF berth wide open for a virtual posse
of vets (Zvereva, Pratt), a flash in the pan ('00 QF Serna),
and at least one grasscourt upstart (Myskina or hard-serving
Molik). Wild Card Zvereva, perhaps stoked by watching how
doubles partner Navratilova put on a good show at
Eastbourne, returns to singles for the first time in well
over a year with a draw to die for. She could easily slip
into Testud's would-be position, advancing to the 4r to face
the survivor of the skirmish to assume Mauresmo's slot. The
likely last woman standing in that battle would seem to be
Myskina, who recently stated her displeasure for the grass
even while advancing to the Finals of both English
grasscourt tuneups (losing to Dokic at Birmingham, then to
Rubin at Eastbourne). No one has more grass matches under
her belt this season, but whether that will give her
momentum or serve to tire her out (something she complained
of after the Eastbourne final) even earlier remains to be
seen.
--AND AN OPENING FOR WHAT MIGHT BE A SURPRISE CHALLENGE TO
CAPRIATI--
Eleni Daniilidou, Daja Bedanova, Alexandra Stevenson &
Meghannn Shaughnessy ...Obviously, Capriati is the odds-on
favorite to not just make it to the QF but also get to the
SF. But there's a shot that she might have to weather at
least one storm along that path. Her section is littered
with young players with grasscourt success to feed them some
measure of confidence. In the 3r, she could meet Daja
Bedanova, conquerer of Dokic in Eastbourne. In the 4r, it
could be Eleni Daniilidou ('s-Hertogenbosch champ, where she
came back from a break down in the 3rd set to defeat
Dementieva, and survivor of 6 Henin match points in the SF
the day before), Alexandra Stevenson ('99 SF, and with a win
over Capriati this year) or Meghannn Shaughnessy (though her
'02 season has been as forgettable as anyone's). If any one
of them catches Capriati on a semi-off day, we could be
looking at the quarter that will produce a shocker
semifinalist to follow-up Clarisa Fernandez's run at RG.
--OVERVIEW--
While this quarter looks like it could be the target of a
number of Cinderella stories, it probably won't be.
Capriati's best results in '02 have been at the two slams
(she won Oz, had a SF at RG), with the rest of the WTA
schedule seeming to be of little interest to her. She'll
likely make it 3-for-3 at Wimbledon.
PREDICTION: Capriati will make her way to the SF for a
second straight year, but not without losing a few sets
along the way before finally taking out Myskina in the QF as
the least-talked-about Russian completes her surprising
grass season with her best-ever slam result (and her eye on
a potential debut berth in the year-ending Sanex
Championships in L.A.).
*****BOTTOM HALF, QUARTER #2*****
IN THIS QUARTER, WE'VE GOT...
--A CIRCLE OF PLAYERS WHOSE STORIES COULD BE THE TALK OF THE
GROUNDS--
Chanda Rubin, Anna Kournikova, Clarisa Fernandez & Julie
Pullin... If any one of these players can pull off a few
wins, they'll be amongst the top stories of Week 1. Rubin,
after battling injuries for over a year, has made the finals
in two of her last four events (winning on the grass at
Eastbourne), but she's lost in the 1r here four of the last
five years. Kournikova's title-less story is
well-documented, but most forget that she made the SF in her
Wimbledon debut in 1997. After a promising start, though,
her 2002 season has gone up in smoke (she's 16-19 on the
year). Maybe her recent work with Harold Solomon will start
to pay dividends this week, but that's a very big if.
Fernandez was the shock semifinalist of RG, but the chances
of her doing anything here (especially after having to
retire in Birmingham) are slim. Pullin is Britain's
#1-ranked woman, and she made some noise in Birmingham
(knocking off one-time Wimbledon QF Serna). She won't make
it to the weekend, but she could put together a win or two
before she has to wave goodbye to the English crowd.
--THE TWO FASTEST-RISING TOP 10-OR-SOON-TO-BE TEENAGERS--
Jelena Dokic & Daniela Hantuchova... Both 19-year olds enter
Wimbledon looking to make their grand slam marks. Dokic
made a SF here in 2000, but is looking for a follow-up
breakthrough; while Hantuchova has seemingly been anointed
as "the new Anna who can win titles" since taking Indian
Wells a few months ago. The truth, though, is that the
lanky Slovak hasn't had too much success since she won that
first career title. Her best result since was the
Eastbourne SF last week, where she was drummed off the court
by Myskina (the same player Dokic crushed in Birmingham a
week earlier). Dokic, on the other hand, has already
collected two singles titles in 2002 to go with her three
2001 crowns, and was disappointed by her career-worst (but
certainly respectable) Wimbledon 4r last year. These two
stand in each other's way with a 4r matchup (sure to be
dubbed "Glamour Girls Matchup, Part II," the sequel to
Dokic's victorious meeting with Schett in 2001) blocking a
potential QF meeting with Serena Williams. Dokic has yet to
defeat Hantuchova as a pro (she's 0-2), and Hantuchova's
height and net play would seem to hint at future success on
the grass. It might not happen in 2002, though. It'll be
tough for Jelena to better her '01 result, but Wimbledon has
always brought out her best. Look for it to do so again.
--OVERVIEW--
Just call this the "you never know" quarter. Anything could
happen, but what we'll get is pure chalk. Hantuchova could
make tennis marketers happy and become a true star here, but
she's probably not quite ready. Anne Kremer, 3-0 against
Dokic in 2002, could make Jelena's life miserable again...
but she probably won't get to the 4r to get the chance,
considering she's lost her opening match here four times in
five tries. A Rubin/Serena 4r matchup could be a truly
intriguing contest, but Serena would probably win it
handily. Dokic loves Wimbledon, so maybe there's a chance
she can get on enough of a roll to knock off Williams,
2002's best player through six months of play, in the QF...
but her serve has been such a dodgy element over the past
month that she'd probably give away too many free points to
pull off a win that she's otherwise capable of coming
through with.
PREDICTION: Serena over Jelena, with the Dokic serve
short-circuiting just enough to prevent a
tournament-overturning victory.
**SEMIFINALS**
Venus def. Henin
Capriati def. Serena
...This time, in a rematch of the '01 Final, Henin won't
take a set off Venus. Capriati will finally remove the
Williams albatross from her shoulder.
**FINAL**
Venus def. Capriati
...But Venus still owns Capriati, and the great big plate,
too.
*****MEN*****
**SEMIFINALS**
Henman def. Federer
Agassi def. Sampras
...This might be Henman's best-shot-ever-to-finally-do-it
year. Sampras, even as the #6 seed, has a good enough draw
to think he might be able to string together one more (and
maybe final) great challenge at a slam (as long as Todd
Martin can oust Marat Safin, already with two slam SF in
2002, in the 4r).
**FINAL**
Agassi def. Henman
...But I don't think Henman will ever win a grand slam,
so...
==============================
NEXT WEEK: Mid-Wimbledon WTA Report
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by Todd Spiker