Article by Todd Spiker

by Todd Spiker

POINTS TABLE
W=195
RU=137
SF=88
QF=49
2r=25
1r=1

As Jelena Dokic prepares to head back to the court in Stanford, she's already experienced a sense of deja vu.  Remember last Fall?  You know, when Lindsay Davenport proceeded to put a decisive end to Jelena's spectacular late-season surge... to the tune of three defeats in a span of less than two weeks over the course of three different events.

Well, Davenport is back... and Jelena is already feeling the effect.  She'll have to play an additional 1r match now that Davenport was given the tournament's #2 seed, despite being ranked #9 (which should have earned her the #6 seed).  Not only that, but Jelena might have to face Davenport (she's 0-6 against her for her career) in the QF.

It's easy to debate the fairness of Davenport's bump.  Should she be given special treatment simply because of an injury, many of which the likes of Dokic, Seles, Clijsters and Henin (each bumped down one seed this week) have all suffered this season?  Should they be penalized for remaining healthy enough to perform during the first six months of the 2002 WTA schedule?  Remember, we're not talking about an abnormal situation such as Seles's stabbing, for which she received special ranking assistence once she returned.

The Davenport bump means that Seles misses out on the chance of being the top seed in the bottom half, and now will likely have to face Venus Williams in the SF.  Clijsters defeated Davenport in the Stanford final in 2001, AND is currently ranked ahead of her... but she too was pushed down the list of seeds. Of course, only Jelena is now forced to play an extra match after having initially being expected to be seeded to reach the SF.

From here, the accomodation looks ridiculous.  Davenport is still ranked in the Top 10 and would not have had to face a top player until the QF as the #6 seed, anyway.  Secondly, she has yet to prove she is ready for a full tournament schedule.  Does this mean that Martina Hingis will be given the same special treatment when she returns?  If so, why didn't the likes of former Top 10ers Mary Pierce and Anna Kournikova (the latter the victim of a series of horrendous draws in 2002, which continues with her 1r match vs. Anna Smashnova in Stanford) get such propping up?  Does this mean that Jelena could be ranked #5 come Flushing Meadows, but be seeded #7 should Hingis decide to make her return there?  At least in this instance, there's good reason for Dokic to feel the need to grouse about her situation this week.

But, all that being said, Jelena has to keep quiet and just go about her business this week (I'm sure she can do it if she tries REALLY hard).  Here's the draw:

#1-Venus Williams - bye
M.Shaughnessy v. Francesca Schiavone
Marie-Gaiane Mikaelian v. qualifier
#8-Anna Smashnova v. Anna Kournikova
--------------------------------------
#3-Monica Seles - bye
Janette Husarova v. Tamarine Tanasugarn
Ai Sugiyama v. Lisa Raymond
#6-Justine Henin v. qualifier
--------------------------------------
#7-Daja Bedanova v. Tatiana Panova
Jelena Jankovic v. qualifier
Alexandra Stevenson v. Meilen Tu
#4-Kim Clijsters - bye
-------------------------------------
#5-JELENA DOKIC v. Amy Frazier
Laura Granville v. Conchita Martinez
Rita Grande v. qualifier
#2-Lindsay Davenport - bye


What Jelena does in Stanford, not surprisingly, depends in large part on what condition Davenport is in after eight months away (she's already competed in WTT matches, and in this weekend's Fed Cup action).  An extra match to prepare, in her first hardcourt event since March, for a potential QF matchup against her longtime nemesis probably isn't a bad thing for Jelena, though.

Barring a surprise, the first Dokic-Davenport clash of 2002 looks probable.  It might be Jelena's golden opportunity.  She'll have a chance to wipe away a career's worth of near-misses against the American, no matter what Davenport's level of play at this early stage of her comeback.  If Jelena finally has a physical advantage against the former #1 player in the world, she needs to exploit it while she can.  Problem is, the battle that's as big an obstacle as Davenport's punishing groundstrokes might be Jelena's own confidence (or lack of it, really) that she can actually beat her at all.  She's always seemed a bit intimidated by the sight of Davenport looming on the other side of the next, and this week could bring the first time she's seen such a sight since losing to her in her final three tournaments (Zurich, Linz and the WTA Championships... the first two in finals) of 2001.

PREDICTION:
I hate to do it, but I'm going to have to go with a Davenport win in that expected QF matchup.  I hope I'm wrong, but Davenport's form has seemed to be pretty good (she defeated Smashnova 6-3,6-3 in Fed Cup on Saturday) since losing her opening WTT match to Shaughnessy.  Maybe Jelena's fitness and Davenport's remaining rust will turn the tide, though.  Truth is, if Jelena can somehow get past Davenport she might have a fine ride to the Stanford final (where Venus would likely be waiting).  Injury-battling defending Stanford champ Kim Clijsters is the only other big name in the bottom half of the draw, but one gets the feeling that the Waffle's recent problems mean Jelena wouldn't have a difficult time getting past her if need be.  So, essentially, a case can be made that the biggest obstacle standing between Jelena and a super start to the North American hardcourt season is one woman -- the 6-foot,2-inch Davenport.  Boy, how familiar is that?  So far, Jelena hasn't been able to find a way to get past that particular obstacle.  But if it's going to happen, it'll be in Stanford.  The timing is perfect.