Article by Todd Spiker

PREVIEW: MONTREAL

by Todd Spiker

DRAW: www.tennisrulz.com/draws/montreal.htm


Jelena's North American tour, fresh off a string of successes in California, finally begins its trek east toward Flushing Meadows this week... with a stop off in Montreal.

 

As you can see, the 2002 Tier I's haven't exactly been kind to Jelena.  Last year, she went 20-7 in such events, was one of just three women (with Serena and Davenport) to win multiple Tier I titles, and was RU in a third.  This time around, she's just 4-6.  But, for the first time this season, she enters with at least some measure of good health and a whiff of confidence.  That should make more than a little difference.  That is, as long as the physical and mental wall that Jelena seemed to slam into headfirst in the L.A. SF doesn't suddenly appear in her direct path yet again.

Of course, it helps that she got a pretty good draw for Montreal.  As the #3 seed, she won't have to contend with Davenport (who's not playing), and Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters and Daniela Hantuchova are all in the top half.  Up there, you'd have to think that Serena will rebound from her upset loss to Chanda Rubin in L.A. and come roaring back all the way to the Final (and probably the title) this week in Canada.  Joining Jelena in the bottom half are Martina Hingis (just coming back from a long layoff), Justine Henin (back after a finger injury) and Jennifer Capriati (whom Jelena defeat two weeks ago, and who lost early to Ai Sugiyama last week).  The U.S. Open seeds will be based on the rankings following Montreal, so this is Jelena's chance to firmly secure her #4 ranking and expect to get a grand slam-best #5 seed (with Davenport getting an injury exemption seed one spot ahead) at Flushing Meadows.

As this pre-Open hardcourt season began, I laid out a set of realistic results goals of 2 QF, 1 SF and 1 RU.  So far, Jelena is plugging right along, meeting each and every single one of them.  She's got 1 QF, 1 SF and 1 RU to her credit in the span... and the QF that would seem likely this week would stamp this past month as an unqualified -- and necessary, considering her disappointing Wimbledon -- success.  In fact, she might even be able to surpass those goals considering she has a very real opportunity to get through to another SF.  She's already 285 points ahead of the pre-Open hardcourt season pace she kept last year (and could push it well over 300 with a Montreal SF), so no matter how things play out this week she should be more than satisfied with her August exploits, her best string of consecutive results yet in 2002.

 

   In the QF, Jelena might meet up with Hingis for the first time since last year's U.S. Open 4r.  But, considering this is Hingis' first tournament back, it could be somewhat safe to assume that if Jelena makes it that far she might just find the Swiss Miss missing.  Hingis will likely have to get past both Shaughnessy and/or Myskina to get that far, and that could be too much to ask of her so soon.
  One can't expect so many top seeds to fall in Montreal as did in L.A., though.  For Jelena to exceed expectations this time around, she's going to have to beat another Top 10er herself rather than watch someone else do it for her.  That could mean Capriati or Henin in the SF.  If it's Henin waiting there, it would be a golden opportunity for Jelena to reach her second final in three weeks; while Capriati might prove to present a task far more difficult.  The odds of Jelena being able to knock off Capriati twice in three weeks probably aren't all that good, but at least she would KNOW she can do it now.  That could make a big difference.
  

As for an actual prediction, I'm having a hard time escaping a QF feeling... especially if Jelena (playing doubles yet again this week, a questionable decision at best after the Chanda Rubin "semi-tank" debacle) starts to complain of being sick/tired early in the week.  But, I'll take a leap of faith and go a step farther by expecting the likes of Hingis to go out early and for Jelena, in what will probably be her last event before the Open, to advance to at least the SF for the third straight week... and be knocked off by Capriati once she gets there.  Hopefully, if that does happen, it won't be a case of Jelena going down in flames ala Los Angeles, a scenario about which no one -- least of all Jelena -- wants to experience a sense of deja vu.