JELENA-DOKIC.com - July
21, 2003
JELENA CORNER by Todd Spiker
Jelena has had three weeks to think. Three weeks to
work on her game with Borna Bikic. Three weeks to root
around amongst the encouraging signs she discovered at
Wimbledon and decide what will be useful to pack away in
her mental suitcase for the month-and-a-half long business
trip to North America. Three weeks to prepare her
battleplan for the 3rd Quarter.
After beginning this week in Stanford, Jelena's trek
will gradually wind its way east toward Flushing Meadow in
late August... where all the blood, sweat and tears she
endured throughout 2003 will be put to the test on the
grand slam stage yet again.
Get ready, for this season has to follow the principles
of Jelena's Law at some point, right? You know all about
Jelena's Law, don't you? It's the opposite of Murphy's
Law, where if something can go wrong it usually will.
Jelena's been operating under that particularly
frustrating code for far too long, so the new Law must
begin to be applied immediately. It reads: Things are
bound to go right... at some point. Hopefully, that time
will soon be upon us.
--W.W.J.D. (What Will Jelena Do?)--
Looking ahead at the 4th Quarter that follows the US
Open, Jelena can see a section of the schedule where she
has few points to defend. But that's not the case with
the proceeding seven weeks that will make up the 3rd
Quarter. This quarter, she'll be defending 682 points
from her five events during the 3rd in 2002 (she's
scheduled to play in six this year), made even more of a
virtual mountain to climb when you consider she's
accumulated just a total of 707 points in the SEVENTEEN
tournaments she's played in all of 2003.
You see, it was at this time last year that Jelena
revved her engine the loudest as the US Open neared... but
it was doomed to be the high point before the big slide.
She defeated Jennifer Capriati in San Diego (The
Petulant One even called her a "great player") before
losing to Venus Williams in the final. She made the SF in
Los Angeles, showing the first signs of mental and
physical wear and tear during the "semi-tank" against
Chanda Rubin. She followed that up by making the SF in
Montreal, only to be forced to retire during the late
summer rematch against Capriati. The tailspin had begun.
She withdrew from New Haven, then lost in the 2r of the
Open to Elena Bovina. Nothing's been quite the same
since.
Now, it's 2003 and her major points defenses of the
quarter are coming up fast. San Diego (Week 31) and
Canada (Week 33), for example, are Jelena's two largest
points totals in the last 12 months.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**3rd
Quarter Points 2002**
Week 30.....65...Stanford QF
Week 31....267...San Diego RU
Week 32....118...L.A. SF
Week 33....192...Canada SF
Wks.35/36...40...US Open 2r
|
|
|
In fact, Jelena's 682 3rd Quarter points to defend are
the second-highest total for any of the players within
shouting distance of her -- both above and below -- in the
rankings. From #7 Capriati (who leads Jelena by 819
points) to #25 Nadia Petrova (who trails by 569), here are
the players with the most-to-least to lose this quarter:
Capriati..........695
JELENA............682
Rubin.............672
Hantuchova........639
Sugiyama..........450
Bovina............447
Seles.............332
Myskina...........294
Coetzer...........268
Schnyder..........211
Dechy.............198
Shaughnessy.......187
Zvonareva......182.25
Farina Elia.......155
Daniilidou........143
Martinez..........137
Maleeva...........125
Dementieva........119
Petrova.............3
Earlier in the year, these quarter outlooks talked of
winning titles and making finals. With good reason,
considering that's what Jelena's done in the past. But
not in 2003. While avoiding a fall into the "not
expecting much" trap, the goals of this quarter should
best be a little more realistic for a player with a 15-17
record for the season.
What Jelena needs to do results-wise more than anything
over the next few weeks is to do enough to just keep
afloat her chances of staying in the Top 16 seeds for the
US Open, hopefully precipitating a good result there that
will give her enough confidence to truly attack the 4th
Quarter (where she'll be defending 491 points that she
garnered in eight events, finally giving her an
opportunity to make up some of the season's lost ground).
Yet even with that goal in mind, it's going to be a tough
fight. With so many huge results ready to fall off her
ranking totals, just staying in the Top 20 at all by the
time the Open arrives will take Jelena's best string of
results since last August (remember, she's only made one
SF so far in 2003). Seemingly with this fight for her
ranking in mind, Jelena has characteristically filled her
pre-Open schedule to the brim, committing to playing every
week leading up to the grand slam (a minefield of a
schedule that could blow up in her face, as it has in the
past, if she's not careful).
In fact, in she does play as scheduled in New Haven the
week before Flushing Meadow, she will have gone 0-for-3 in
following her early-season plan to not play the week
before a slam. Of course, circumstances and early-round
losses in 2003 have caused those January desires to have
to be rewritten. Remember, she planned on playing in just
22 tournaments this season. Right now, the US Open will
be her 23rd of 2003 with an entire quarter left to play.
At her current pace, she'll end the season with about 30
events (after playing 29 in the admittedly too
heavily-scheduled 2002 season). But the bright side of
that is that even with more events she'll likely end up
with fewer than the total of 79 matches she clocked in at
a year ago. With just 33 matches so far this year (Kim
Clijsters has 63!), Jelena will probably escape 2003
without nearly as much wear and tear as in 2002. With
luck, her 2004 season will start earlier (Oz?), as well as
more successfully, and finally allow her to follow through
on her plan to cut back on her schedule. Time will tell.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**3rd
Quarter Goals**
0..W/RU
1..SF (with hope for 2)
3..QF (make one a SF?)
1..1r/2r (odds are good)
1..US Open 4r (with Top 16)
|
|
|
As for the 3rd Quarter, titles and finals would be
nice, of course, while Jelena toils away in North America,
but thinking she's going to come even remotely close to
matching the banner month she had this time last year is
bound to result in disappointment.
Calm consistency is the true essential ingredient for
the next seven weeks. It's the only chance she has to get
into the Top 16 seeds for the Open, and even then it'll be
difficult. Currently, Jelena's #12. She has four weeks
to keep from sliding to #17 or below (the US seeding will
follow the rankings after the Tier I in Toronto, so what
happens in New Haven will have no effect). Barring a huge
run to a final (and maybe winning it), I don't see it
happening, though. It's more likely she'll be seeded
between #17 & #19 in New York (she'll even probably fall
below doubles partner Petrova, barring an injury to the
Russian, since she's defending nothing this quarter),
making it even more difficult to leave the 3rd Quarter
with a great slam result.
But, Faith In Jelena persists, so maybe she will be
able to STILL accomplish enough heading into the Open to
allow her to be in a good position to begin her 4th
Quarter momentum there with a 4r or QF result. If she
can, expect the Jelena Corner that will preview the 4th to
make an attempt to breathe life into the notion that
Jelena can do just what Kim Clijsters did in the closing
Quarter in 2002, when she ended a lackluster season with
three titles, four finals and on a monster of a roll
that's carried over into 2003.
The chances of the same thing happening to Jelena would
be far greater if she can simply build upon the noticeable
bright spots that were evident at Wimbledon over the next
seven weeks, gaining confidence and preparing to finally
strike back in the season's final stanza.
But, hey, if she finds a way to pull off her
resurrection before she heads to New York, I'm sure no one
around these parts will complain.
**3rd QUARTER THROUGH-THE-YEARS**
1998..............2-0
1999..............4-3
2000..............3-3
2001.............12-8
2002.............13-5
**JELENA HARDCOURTS IN 2003**
Paris.........QF (Daniilidou)
Antwerp.......1r (Sugiyama)
Scottsdale....2r (Shaughnessy)
Indian Wells..2r (Rittner)
Miami.........QF (Clijsters)
Stanford......THIS WEEK
San Diego.....NEXT WEEK
Los Angeles...WEEK 32
Toronto.......WEEK 33
New Haven.....WEEK 34
US OPEN.......WEEK 35/36
STANFORD, CALIFORNIA
Bank of the West Classic
Week of July 21
Hardcourt; Tier II
#5 Seed; 2r vs. Stevenson/qualifier
2002: QF-Davenport (65 pts)
POINTS
W=195, RU=137, SF=88, QF=49, 2r=25, 1r=1
Whatever happens in the 4th Quarter will likely be the
aftereffect of what happens in the 3rd. If Jelena can get
on a roll, she could light things up. If she doesn't, she
could disconsolately play out the string. So, things need
to get off to a good start in Stanford.
A "good start" means being on her game enough to not
suffer an early upset that would be very bad news in the
confidence department. Luckily, she'll play either
Alexandra Stevenson or a qualifier in her first match
after a 1r bye rather than face Yoon-Jeong Cho as a result
of Serena Williams' withdrawal. Playing the dangerous Cho
could have been like Jelena having a black cat cross her
path. Hmmm, maybe Jelena's Law has already started to
take effect.
I was going to pick a QF had Serena remained in Jelena's
path, and with her gone I'm tempted to push Jelena into a
SF matchup with Jennifer Capriati (just under a year after
Jelena's win over her in San Diego). But I won't.
I'm sticking to the Faith in Jelena principle and
believing that Wimbledon and the last three weeks DID
indeed produce something tangible that will be able to
give her some confidence as the hardcourt season kicks
off, but it might be too early for it to make a big
difference. If that's not the case, this could be the
week that Jelena truly does reclaim some of her lost
luster... but she'd have to go through doubles partner
Nadia Petrova in the QF to do it.
Yes, the draw reshuffle has finally set up that
hoped-for/dreaded (but juicy with intrigue) singles
matchup between the two. Boy, I wonder how Jelena will
react if she loses to her? If Petrova becomes a
consistent opponent (and conqueror), will their doubles
partnership suffer or even expire down the road maybe
sooner than later?
I'd like to think it won't come to that, and Jelena
will win. But Petrova's been on her game far more of late
than Jelena has. And at this point in the 3rd quarter,
she probably still will be. If the Clash of the Titans
occurs, it'll surely be an interesting one in more ways
than one.
Jelena's ranking is going to drop soon, and the rest of
the season is going to be a long grind as she tries to
reclaim her spot near the top of the women's game. It
begins here in Stanford, and she's going to need to try to
run over Petrova with the Jelena SUV to do it. Oh, the
possible repercussions if she doesn't.
==================================
THIS WEEK ON TENNISRULZ BACKSPIN:
Fed Cup recap
