JELENA-DOKIC.com - March
31, 2003
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JELENA
CORNER
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by Todd Spiker
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...::HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?::..
*SARASOTA CLAY COURT
CLASSIC*
*March 31-April 6; Sarasota, Florida*
*Outdoor/Green Clay; Tier IV*
*#1 seed; 1r: vs. Paola Suarez*
*2002: WON - def. Panova (157 pts.)*
*2002 Doubles: WON (with Likhovtseva)*
POINTS TABLE
W=95....QF=24
RU=67...2r=12
SF=43...1r=1
No, The Corner hasn't been turned upside down this week
-- the predictions ARE being thrown out right at the start
(well, not IMMEDIATELY).
With the twists and (mostly) downturns of the 1st quarter
finally behind her, Jelena now enters the portion of her
season during which her game has ignited the past two
years. It was on the clay that Jelena won her first career
title (Rome) in 2001, and in the inaugural version of this
week's Sarasota event where she ran roughshod over the field
(winning the singles without dropping a set, and claiming
the doubles, too) to begin her clay season in 2002.
Can history repeat itself? Can the Plan progress forward
from its successful debut in Miami last week?
Well, I'll let you in on a little secret. While I always
try to have a reason for these predictions every week, I
will admit that I've been planning to pick Jelena to repeat
her Sarasota title for more than a month now. But, during
that pre-Miami four-match losing streak, I was beginning to
wonder how crazy that idea was. I'd hoped to see SOMETHING
in March to make it a legitimate prediction... and Jelena,
at the eleventh hour, came through. Jelena saved me from
walking blindly into the dark. (Thank you, Jelena!) Now,
what I'm about to say won't sound quite as insane as I
feared it might not that long ago.
I'm picking Jelena to win her sixth career title by
repeating in Sarasota. There, I said it. I can't take it
back. Now, about the actual draw...
It's not the easiest. In fact, it's arguable that #2
seed Anastasia Myskina has been handed a more favorable draw
than #1 Jelena. Paola Suarez starts things off, with
probably Maja Matevzic next, and Iroda Tulyaganova or
Tatiana Panova (who Jelena beat in last year's Sarasota
final) after that. And, then, Ai Sugiyama could still be
waiting in the SF.
Judging from the looks of the bottom half, if Jelena can
just get to that SF then it could be tantamount to a final
for her since whoever would await in the final would likely
be of lesser ability than Sugiyama (especially since Myskina
finds herself in a semi-Jelena slump at the moment). Hold
it, did I actually say "if" back there? Obviously, that was
a mistake.
This draw would have have been truly worrisome before
Miami, but I'll choose to not let it be so this week (even
as Jelena makes the transition from hard to clay courts).
If not for Miami, I'd be walking blindly forward here. I'm
not doing that now, though. Right?
...BY THE NUMBERS..
#5 Davenport.............leads by 497
#6 Capriati..............leads by 476
#7 Mauresmo..............leads by 275
#8 Rubin.................leads by 110
#9 Hantuchova.............leads by 65
#10 JELENA.......................2414
#11 Myskina.............trails by 198
#12 Seles...............trails by 583
Even with Jelena's rebound in Miami, she wasn't able to
hold off the hard-charging Chanda Rubin. The American's
return to the Top 10 dropped Jelena to #10. But with
Anastasia Myskina slumping and Monica Seles suffering
through another battle with foot injuries, Jelena's 18-month
long presence in the Top 10 doesn't appear to be put in
danger of ending for at least a few more weeks. Plus, if
Daniela Hantuchova's recent rut continues to persist, an
upward progression in Jelena's results might give her a shot
to put Wonder Girl (at least temporarily) in her rear view
mirror.
In the points transition as Jelena loses her Sarasota
championship points from 2002, 100 points will immediatley
drop off her 2414 total as this week begins. In order to
begin to reclaim some of those points, Jelena will have to
accumulate at least 58 in the tournament (that'll take at
least a QF, and maybe a SF).
The 2003 2nd Quarter now serves as the setup for the rest
of Jelena's season. With so many points to defend, the
"new" Jelena needs to become a reality before the quarter is
out or that Top 10 ranking (and the draw advantages it gives
her) WILL be history.
In 2002, Jelena followed up a 5-5 1st Quarter record with
the best stretch of results of her season. It included a
28-9 record, 2 singles titles, 3 finals, a record-tying
8-match winning streak, a doubles crown, as well as her best
slam result of the year (a QF in Roland Garros). While the
4th Quarter served as Jelena's Monster Defense Zone last
season, this upcoming quarter fills that role this time
around. The 1241 points she accumulated during this
"unofficial" 14-week, 2-slam section of the WTA schedule
amounted to 46% of her total during the course of the entire
2002 season.
**JELENA's SINGLES TITLE DEFENSES**
EVENT.......................DEFENSE
2001 Rome................3r/Myskina
2001 Tokyo PC..........SF/Clijsters
2001 Moscow..............2r/Coetzer
2002 Sarasota....................??
2002 Birmingham..................??
Okay, it's time to roll out the old crystal ball from the
closet and try to divine what might (or needs to) happen in
the 2nd Quarter. I'll try my damnedest to not have it sound
like a complete shot in the dark.
First, I'll throw out the trusty Goals Chart (a slightly
more conservative version than I'd like, but so be it):
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W/RU....................1
SF......................2
QF......................4
1r/4r...................2
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Here's a rundown of last year's weekly results/points
totals, along with some semi-reasonable expections for the
corresponding weeks this season:
WK.14...Sarasota (W-157)..............W/RU
WK.15...Amelia Island (SF-135)*......early
WK.16...Charleston (2r-1)*..............QF
*--Amelia Island & Charleston flip dates in 2003
Jelena's final American stint before she returns for the
pre-US Open hardcourt circuit will put her under some
immediate pressure in the first wave of her 2nd Quarter
defenses. Sarasota, of course, could be important in
setting the tone for the entire clay court season. A Tier
IV, her 2002 title only produced 157 points, but she needs
to repeat her appearance in the final (she has a good chance
as the #1 seed and with her Miami rebound fresh in her
mind), or at least the SF. Amelia Island and Charleston are
switching dates on the calendar for 2003, so Charleston's
1-point flameout comes up first. Jelena needs to at least
get one QF between the two this time around (she made the
A.I. SF in 2002) in order to build some momentum as Roland
Garros nears, especially if she fails to defend Sarasota.
WK.17...(Fed Cup week)....................
WK.18...Hamburg (SF-156).............early
WK.19...Berlin (3r-40)...............QF/SF
WK.20...Rome (2r-61).................QF/SF
WK.21...Strasbourg (RU-134)...............
WK.22/23...Roland Garros (QF-238).......QF
The first leg of the EuroJelena Summer Tour begins with a
built-in week off due to Fed Cup competition. Jelena
followed up the bye week with a SF in Hamburg last year, and
might go to Warsaw this time around with the Hamburg
tournament no longer on the WTA schedule. It's possible she
could take a second week off and focus on Berlin & Rome, but
we ARE talking about Jelena here. Expect her to play.
Berlin and Rome produced little in 2002, so Jelena will need
to change that this time around (especially if she's going
to hold to her plan to not play the week before RG, during
which she earned 134 points with a RU in Strasbourg last
year). Rome, a Tier I, is the key -- Jelena won there in
2001, and with the pressure of defending off, she'll need to
put forth a better effort than last year's 2r exit to send
herself into her Roland Garros QF defense. One would like
to think the "new" Jelena will be rearing her head by this
time, hopefully giving her her best opportunity at making a
slam final in 2003.
WK.24...Birmingham (W-186)..........QF/SF
WK.25...Eastbourne (2r-1)................
WK.26/27...Wimbledon (4r-132)..........QF
If the clay court season doesn't see "new" Jelena become
a reality, there'll still be hope as the second leg of the
EuroJelena Tour (better known as the grass court season)
begins its brief run. Jelena won her first grasscourt title
in Birmingham last year, so the pressure will be on to get
another good result. The Promise means she'll skip
Eastbourne, but after the debacle there last year (remember
her complaints about some "ridiculous match" between
Navratilova/Hantuchova shoving #1-seeded Jelena to a side
court?) the chances that she'd return weren't likely
anyway. Next, of course, comes Wimbledon. "New" Jelena's
better serve and more insistent volleys would be right at
home at SW19, so hopefully we'll all be more familiar with
her by then. Coming off a wobbly 4r result there last year,
it'd be nice to see that old fire in Jelena's eyes at the
All England Club. We already know what she's capable of on
the grass, and what better way would it be to end the 2nd
Quarter than with a great result at the place where she's
had so much success in the past?
...::THE PLAN::..
A repeat of the two-title Quarter of 2002 might not be
realistic considering the evolving nature of Jelena's
current game, but it isn't out of the question by any
means. Still, a sixth career crown (or at least a run to a
final) is a reasonable expectation. With the points at
stake over the next few months, EuroJelena needs to be a
consistent success. The slow-starting Jelena has usually
kicked into gear over these next few months, and there's
every reason to believe it'll happen again in 2003.
Jelena has said she wants to orient her schedule/form so
that she peaks at the slams, and that plan gets its first
test this summer. Her lack of worry about her lagging
results proved to be warrented in Miami, so hopefully by the
time Wimbledon arrives the problems of the past few months
-- and all the hand-wringing, too -- will be looked upon as
the quaint and necessary prelude to far better things.
One thing is certain, come the 2nd Quarter's end in early
July, we'll have a far better idea of whether or not the
plan to build a "new" Jelena is edging close to being a
success. Crossing your fingers at this moment would
definitely be an appropriate response.
=========================================
THIS WEEK ON TENNISRULZ Backspin:
(the regular column)
"The Usual" - Serena wins again, and the March awards
(Backspin: Special Editionn)
The WTA 1st Quarter Report
