Article written by Gerhard Grundhammer

When it comes to Nathalie vs Jelena, I think it all depends on how consistent Jelena is with her shots. It's no mystery what either player will do. Dokic will blast her shots and try to overpower Nathalie, probably throwing in some of her usual drop shots for some variety. Nathalie retrieves pretty well, so she will get back a lot of shots, and try to attack Jelena's second serve and any short balls Jelena gives her. Jelena will control most of the rallies, of course. Nathalie's first serve percentage and how well she backs up her second serve (and how well Dokic returns that second serve) will be very important. Nathalie will break serve multiple times, but the question is how many times she will get broken- can she hold serve enough times, that's always what Nathalie's matches come down to. If Nathalie gets broken 3 or less times, she usually wins unless the opponent is having a great serving day (as Clijsters was at IW, Nathalie broke her only once in three sets). And part of holding serve is saving break points, something Nathalie is normally very good at doing as she is used to being down break point.

Normally Nathalie will serve around 65-70% of her first serves in, and she usually places them pretty well, albeit with not much power; she'll hit maybe 3-7 service winners a set on a good day, and maybe one ace. Even on a bad day, Nathalie's first serve % will not drop below 60%. An opponent will see maybe 10-15 second serves a set, and even if Nathalie wins only 33% of those points (she normally does not win much more than that on second serves), that's still not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things as it's maybe 6-8 points a set. But of course what really matters is whether Nathalie can get her first serve in on break points. Nathalie, when nervous, can hit a few double faults at key times, although she has been a lot better this year. For me, the indicators at to how this match will go are:

- how many times can Nathalie hold serve?
  - can Nathalie win 66% or more of her first serve points (not a given)?
  - can Nathalie win 50% or more of her second serve points (unlikely)?
- how well will Jelena serve, and can she hold easily throughout the match?
   (Nathalie does not fare well when the opponent holds easily and all the
pressure
    is on her to hold serve)
- how many unforced errors will Jelena hit?

Nathalie can usually beat the second tier of power players, such as Shaghnessy and Tulyaganova, because she knows if she gets the ball back a few times they will miss. However, against the top power players, such as Davenport, Williams, Capriati, etc, she will normally lose because they beat her with power and consistency. Nathalie can handle variety, but if someone runs her around the court and keeps blasting winners, she can get a little discouraged. Nagyova, not exactly a big time power hitter, did this a few years ago at the US Open, and Nathalie got really frustrated, going down easily in two sets. Dokic was a top tier power player towards the end of last year, but this year she is not playing like it. Missing the Aussie Open every year really hurts her because it seems to take her a few months to get into form.

Obviously, Jelena has been in a slump recently (3-5 this season, lost 4 in a row before her win yesterday), and she struggled in the first set against Kuznetsova. Right now Nathalie is playing better (actually she is having the best year of her career) and has more confidence than Jelena. However, Jelena is 2-0 against Nathalie, though both matches were somewhat close. I think this one could go either way-- I would give Nathalie a slight edge just because it often comes down to current form and confidence, and it does not look to me that Jelena is playing with the consistency she will need to overpower Nathalie. I also think whomever wins the first set will be the winner of this match, and I doubt it will go three sets.