JELENA-DOKIC.com - February 10, 2003

TO THE WAFFLE HOUSE
by Todd Spiker


*PARIS (seed #4) BREAKDOWN*
2526...February 3 points
49.....QF
8......2r: Loit (#54) - 6-3,6-4
0......QF: Daniilidou (#19) - 1-6,3-6
57.....EVENT TOTAL (17th-best 12-month)
-230...Paris 2002
-173...RANKINGS POINTS FOR WEEK
2353...February 10 points

#10....SINGLES (2353)
C-.....JD.com PARIS SINGLES GRADE


*A NOT SO GAY OLD TIME*

   As Jelena continues to struggle to get her game back in shape for the 2003 season, that annoying rust remained in Paris, joined by this year's first appearance of anything resembling emotional frustration as Jelena tearfully left the court following her QF smashing at the hands of Eleni Daniilidou.
   At this early stage, though, it's hardly time to start to raise eyebrows and wonder if the same sluggish Jelena that ended 2002 is still in evidence three months later.  She did get a straight sets win over the same Emilie Loit who pushed Serena Williams to the limit in Melbourne, managing to fight her way through the types of bad patches that made her Tokyo comeback against Angelique Widjaja a necessity.
   Daniilidou is a familiar adversary for Jelena, going back to their junior tennis days (Jelena was 4-1, and had won their only previous WTA matchup).  They even played doubles together in 2002.  Factor in Daniilidou's fine early-season form (she won the Auckland title, and has already bumped her ranking up to #16) and that the lady from Greece is by far the most powerful player Jelena's faced in four matches, and you get a not unexpected "stumble."
   As of now, it's not time to start throwing out statistics with sharp points attached.  Of course, if something similar happens in Antwerp this week then I'll be forced to reluctantly break out the doom and gloom charts in the next Corner column (you know, the ones that say that Jelena's 5-9 in her last 14 matches, and a mediocre 16-14 since that knock-down, drag-win over Kournikova in San Diego late last summer).


*A LOVE OF THE OPEN ROAD*

 

   Jelena maintains her #10 ranking this week with 2353 points, as her 57 points in Paris tied Linz 2002 for the 17th-best total over the past twelve months.  But as far as Jelena bleeding anymore rankings points, the 173 she lost in Week 6 will be the last she'll be able to lose before she defends her Sarasota title (only 157 since it was a Tier IV) in Week 14.  Yes, it's a defense-free ride from now until April.
   Of course, she'll need to get at least 58 points this week to begin to ADD to her current total (another QF would do it).  Even if she doesn't manage that, though, she has a shot to move past #9 Monica Seles.  Seles leads by just 11 points going into this week, and loses her 163 from Doha 2002 (she'll be back in Qatar to defend her title).  So, when Pierre resets the Tennisrulz rankings page for Monday it'll show Jelena with about a 150-point lead over Seles... and the head-to-head race for the February 17 #9 ranking will begin.


 

*TO THE WAFFLE HOUSE*

   The time has come for Jelena to return to form.  The "it's early" excuse hits its expiration date in Antwerp.  The first round matchup with Ai Sugiyama will be 2003's match #5.  If Jelena can get past it, it'll be time to notch her first consecutive wins since the Tokyo PC in September, eight tournments ago.
   In 2002, Jelena broke out in Paris with her upset of Seles... then made that horrible decision to play doubles later that night, made her injury worse and suffered for it for months afterward (aha... now the reason for skipping the Paris doubles last week has been discovered!).  Last week was a minor disappointment.  She's healthy now, so the climb must begin in the Land of the Waffles (and maybe at at least one Waffle's expense).
   History says Jelena plays better the more often she plays, but if she plays too much she suffers for it in the long run.  With her desire to give herself more rest in 2003, she'll walk a tightrope with her own history the entire season.  Finding the required balance could make for some serious result fluctuations early in the season.  Playing out the rest of the 1st Quarter will put her scheduling prowess to its first test.  Antwerp is her third straight tournament, and a necessity considering the importance of stringing together some wins to eliminate what might have been the hint of faltering confidence after the Daniilidou match.
   If she doesn't perform up to her expectations in Antwerp, does she make it four weeks in a row in Memphis... or take a rest and focus on the other American events in late February/March? Remembr, immediately after that comes the claycourt circuit where she's had increasing success the past few seasons.  Her upcoming decisions off the court will be just as interesting as her results on it the next few weeks and months.
   Of course, we ARE talking about Jelena here... isn't there always SOME bit of intrigue around the corner?


======================================

*JELENA MATCH STATS*
..................2002.....2003
3-setters.........17-8......0-0
Tie-breaks........10-5......1-0
Ret/walkover.......2-5......0-0
Set up............41-4......2-0
Set down..........11-22.....0-2
vs.Lesser rank....51-19.....2-2
vs.Higher rank.....2-8......0-0


 

PROXIMUS DIAMOND GAMES, Feb.10-16
Antwerp, Belgium
Greenset Hard Indoor; Tier II
#6 seed - 2r: vs. Ai Sugiyama
2002: 2r to Schnyder (retired)
POINTS CHART
W=195, RU=137, SF=88, QF=49, 2r=25, 1r=1

PREDICTION:

   Last year, Jelena came into Antwerp after leaving Paris in tears due to an injury.  This year, she arrives after having tearfully left France following a potentially confidence-shaking defeat.  What's the difference?  This year, Jelena should be physically capable of rebounding this week.
   Maybe the Paris tears will help her focus in Waffleland, and her first 1st round match of the year is a blessing for a player who needs some matchplay. Ai Sugiyama isn't an easy opponent by any stretch, but she's not the type of power player who could overmatch the underprepared Jelena, either.  Jelena SHOULD win, and if she does her real work will then begin.  There was legitimate reason to fear the powerful and improving Daniilidou last week, but that shouldn't be the case with either Sugiyama or a matchup with the Magui Serna/Angelika Roesch winner in the 2r.
   It's important that Jelena reach the QF in Antwerp to develop some sort of groove.  She knows it as much anyone, and I won't make the mistake of underestimating her this week.  The need to take her game up one single notch in tournament #3 is apparent, and I'm guessing she'll do it.
   Mister Sweetness & Light isn't going to make his debut prediction for 2003, but his first cousin -- Mister Hopeful & Optimistic -- is.  He's picking a SF for Jelena, including a possible season-kickstarting win over Justine Henin-Hardenne (if she gets past Loit in her first match since her Australian SF result).
   It would take Mister S&L to predict anything more, considering it would likely require knocking out Kim Clijsters in the SF.  Of course, if Kim doesn't respond well in her first action since the Serena Choke...

(sound of door slamming)

   Sorry, I almost let Mister S&L in the door there.  He's not welcome around here at JD.com... at least not yet.  So, I'll say SF and cross my fingers that I won't have to break out the gloom-and-doom charts next Monday.

======================================

Why stop here?  Check out the latest WTA Backspin column on Tennisrulz.com. Pierre will thank you.