JELENA-DOKIC.com -
Jan.27, 2003
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JELENA
CORNER
by Todd Spiker
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"LAND OF THE RISING DAUGHTER"
The time for talk is over. Now, the action begins.
Yes, the moment has come for our first Jelena sighting of
2003 as Miss Dokic emerges from her winter hibernation in
the land of the rising sun (and, hopefully, daughter), armed
with the guiding mind of Heinz Gunthardt (at least for 10
weeks) for protection against the elements.
Everyone else has been twiddling their thumbs over some
silly tournament in Melbourne, but the real starting gate is
in Tokyo... and Jelena is there.
Play ball!
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FEBRUARY
(WEEK 5-9) OUTLOOK
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#5
Hantuchova...leads by 332
#6 Capriati.....leads by 284
#7 Mauresmo.....leads by 223
#8 JELENA...............2506
#9 Seles........trails by 14
#10 Davenport..trails by 335
#11 Myskina....trails by 356
#12 Rubin......trails by 541
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Jelena only has one major points defense in February, a
230-point Paris RU in Week 6. Let's all hope for good
health, for even if Jelena doesn't stack
back-to-back-to-back events into her schedule throughout the
month her 2002 injury problems leave quite a few blank weeks
(she gained just 1 point in Weeks 7-9 last year, then
finished out the 1st quarter poorly, as well) that she can
fill up with points as she strives to move past her current
#8 ranking.
That move upward could happen in February if she can
defend most of her Paris points, for Seles (14 points back
and injured in Oz) has 209, 164, 163 & 119-point defenses in
February. Also, Capriati (up 284 and ailing) defends 185 in
Week 9, and Mauresmo (injured, again) might lose all her
107, 107 and 289-point totals over the next few weeks.
Of course, Myskina, Davenport and Rubin are moving up
behind Jelena and at least one (likely Davenport, 335 back)
might surprass her in February. By the time March arrives,
though, I think the rankings scramble will produce a gain
for Jelena. Say, a bump up to #7?
* - NOTE: Starting at the end of February, I'll debut the
JD.com monthly Jelena Awards... complete with tournament
grades, best match, worst match, etc.
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1st QUARTER
(WEEK 1-13) OUTLOOK
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1ST QUARTER
POINTS CHART
2002****************2003
1........WEEK 5........?
230......WEEK 6.........
1........WEEK 7.........
0........WEEK 8.........
0........WEEK 9.........
36......WK.10/11........
38......WK.12/13........
========================
2002 1st Qtr.Points..306
2003 1st Qtr.Points....0
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**1st Quarter Goals**
1...W or RU
1...SF
3...QF
1...early exit
Jelena needs to begin the first quarter of her season by
making a point to play to her seed in every tournament. Far
too often in 2002, she exited events early despite being
seeded to go far deeper. A week or two of scheduled rest
might not be a bad idea, either.
Early-season rust will likely result in at least one
quick exit this quarter. Hopefully, she'll be able to
rebound quickly and Heinz Gunthardt's coaching will begin to
sink in by the time she hits the the American hardcourt
season at the end of March. Remember, she'll open up the
2nd quarter (Week 14) by trying to defend her Sarasota
title.
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Toray Pan Pacific Open
Tokyo, Japan; Jan.28-Feb.2
Tier I; Indoor Carpet
#2 seed
Opening Match:
vs. Angelique Widjaja/Mi-Ra Jeon winner
2002: 2r loss to Anne Kremer (1 pt.)
POINTS CHART
W-275...RU-193...SF-124
QF-69...2r-38....1r-1
*PREDICTION*
Opening her schedule in a Tier I a week after Oz would
seem to be a good turn of fortune for Jelena, considering
she's the highest-ranked player in the field (none of the
Top 7 players are entered). But starting the season a month
late has its disadvantages, too. Jelena could take a while
to round into form (it's happened in the past), and she's
had difficultites adjusting to the carpet surface that
she'll face in Tokyo, too. In this case, a first round bye
isn't necessarily her friend.
Okay, now that that's out of the way, what do I actually
think might happen? Well, I don't foresee another Anne
Kremer Incident, as Jelena should be able to get past the
Widjaja/Jeon winner in the 2nd Round. It's after that that
things could get a little hairy. Maleeva could be a big
obstacle in the QF (remember, she was a Tier I champ late in
2002). If Jelena manages to make it past her, the ol'
Davenport could await her in the SF. LD isn't what she used
to be, but Jelena has yet to figure out how to go into the
matchup with anything resembling confidence.
It's the opening tournament of the year, so I think it's
smart to not overestimate Jelena's Tokyo result (I'll
probably do enough of THAT later in the season). A Tier I
SF would be a great way to open the season, but I'll play it
safe and pick a QF. Nothing spectacular, but a base on
which to build heading into Paris next week.
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**JELENA IN TIER I's**
1999....1-1
2000....9-7
2001...20-5 (2 titles)
2002....8-9
2003....0-0
**HOW JELENA HAS OPENED IN JANUARY**
99 Hopman RR - lost to Coetzer
...Jelena won her next 5 matches
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00 Hopman RR - lost to Tanasugarn
...Jelena went 2-3 in her next 5
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01 Hong Kong exhib - def. Rubin (ret.)
...Jelena went 2-3 in her next 5
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02 Tokyo TPP - lost to Kremer
...3 wins, 1 w/o, 1 ret.loss in next 5
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THIS WEEK ON Tennisrulz.com's "WTA Backspin":
"Serena Slam-Slam-Slammin' Away"
...the January WTA Awards column
