JELENA-DOKIC.COM -
JANUARY 2003/WEEK 1
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JELENA
CORNER
by Todd Spiker
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Turn back the clock! Run for the hills! It's the return
of the "ranking column!"
How many of you remember the "ancient" days (you know,
about eighteen months ago) when this little column on JD.com
didn't have its own name and simply (dryly) focused on Miss
Dokic's weekly computer ranking?
How boooooooooring.
Well, with Jelena still preparing for her 2003 return in
Tokyo on January 27, the "ranking column" is what I'm
reduced to in this space. So, here it goes.
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*1st QUARTER
POINTS CHART*
2002******************2003
0.........WEEK 1.........0
0.........WEEK 2.........0
0...........OZ...........0
1.........WEEK 5........??
230.......WEEK 6........??
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Jelena will only have one points defense to contend with
during 2003's 1st Quarter -- the 230-point, RU haul from
last year's Paris event when she defeated Monica Seles but
then had to pull out of the final against Venus Williams.
The 230 will be her third-largest points defense for the
entire season (the top two will occur at Roland Garros and
San Diego). In other words, no knee-buckling month's worth
of totals (ala '02) loom ahead to cause her to play on when
she shouldn't in order to secure a ranking-point cushion
against later defense failures.
She'll remain at 2506 going into Tokyo, and will need to
gather at least 58 points there for the total to move upward
before she heads to Paris. In the interim, Jelena's actual
computer ranking is at the mercy of the players around,
above and below her.
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******THE
RANKINGS RACE*****
#4 Clijsters......up by 1051
#5 Henin-H.........up by 657
#6 Mauresmo........up by 562
#7 Seles...........up by 446
#8 Hantuchova...up by 161.75
#9 JELENA...............2506
#10 Hingis..........back 158
#11 Myskina.........back 598
#12 Davenport.......back 711
#13 Rubin...........back 754
#14 Maleeva.........back 805
#15 Schnyder........back 815
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As far as gaining on the women ahead of her in the
season's early weeks, it'll be a tough task. Jelena did
gain 55 on Justine Henin-Hardenne after Week 1 to get within
657, and the Waffle defends 82 this week before facing an Oz
QF defense worth 260. Monica Seles leads by 446, and will
defend 500 at Oz (where she defeated Venus and made the SF
last year) before facing another 209-point stance the
following week. Hantuchova leads by just under 162 points,
but her relatively small early-season points from 2002
(89.75 in Week 2, 72 at Oz) probably means that Wonder Girl
will extend her lead over Jelena.
Fellow Melbourne absentee Amelie Mauresmo, up by 562,
will lose all her 244 points from last year's Oz, so she'll
be within Jelena's range soon; and the enticing possibility
of #3 Jennifer Capriati falling to within striking range, as
well, is something to bear watching. JC leads Jelena by
nearly 1300 points, but must defend 1008 from her 2002 slam
title in Australia. (Hint: Hope for an early-round upset.)
More likely, though, is that Jelena will soon feel the
heat of her pursuers. Myskina, Davenport and Rubin are
coming up fast, and potential big performances from the
three in Melbourne would threaten Jelena's place in the Top
10.
Myskina has minimal points to defend in January (her 1r
loss in Sydney was a blown opportunity that helps Jelena),
while Davenport and Rubin have no points to defend since
they were still out of action at this time a year ago.
Davenport will likely make up the 711 points she trails
Dokic by, and push Jelena down to #10 by the time she makes
her 2003 debut.
So, the vaunted Top 10 ranking might slip from Jelena's
grasp for a few weeks if she doesn't open her season well in
Tokyo (she lost her first match there in 2002, to Anne
Kremer) or advance deep into the draw again in Paris. But
once Week 6 is complete, she'll have fairly clear sailing in
the points defense area until late May. Barring another
battle with injuries, her fortunes could then become bigger
and better than ever. As difficult as those early,
injury-riddled months were at the time in 2002, the "open
space" they'll provide in 2003 could help to make things
much nicer over the next few months.
Ah, expectations are high yet again, aren't they? But,
everyone's still playing a waiting game. Take heart, as of
Monday the "Return of Jelena" is but 21 days away. Sit
tight.
=====================================
NEXT WEEK in Jelena Corner:
"Oz 2003: Dorothy Held Hostage, Year 2"
THIS WEEK on Tennisrulz.com:
"The Waffle Meets the Williams, and Serena Leads 1-0"
